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SRC Stock Charts - Profit at-a-glance. Market Insight Newsletter

Relative Strength, Long Term Stocks and Your Grandfather's Diversification.


June is here already and its hard to believe but we are nearing the mid point of 2011. We hope the up and down year as been mostly up for you and we're continuing to deliver on our pledge to provide better content and educational articles to help ensure you finish the back of 2011 strong.

This month noted industry analyst and author Mike Carr discusses several topics relating to long term investment and using long term stock chart data.


Relative Strength on Long-Term Charts.

One of the most widely used tools in technical analysis is relative strength. The idea behind this technique is to identify individual stocks which are outperforming the general market. Numerous academic studies have shown that a portfolio comprised of stocks which have been market leaders for the past 3-12 months will usually outperform the market averages over the next 3-12 months. There are a number of ways to calculate relative strength, and practitioners apply the idea in a number of different ways.

Broad index analysis is another tool that technicians use to identify long-term trends in the stock market. To do this, a ratio of two indexes is charted, in effect creating a relative strength chart between the two indexes.....

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Stocks in the Very Long-Term.

Technical analysis is often associated with short-term trading. Long-term charts can offer a different perspective. Few take the time to look at a fifty-year chart of the Dow Jones Industrial Average, which we can see below. There are several observations that can be made from this chart (Click to see the full chart in PDF format.)

Stocks have been largely range-bound since 1999. This marks the twelfth year of a sideways market. This is similar to what investors experienced from 1966 to 1982. After the long bull market that ended in 2000, many forgot that sideways markets are not uneventful. In many ways, the volatility of these two periods has been more challenging than the bull market shown in the middle of the chart.

Your Grandfather's Diversification.


A successful financial investing strategy should be about steady accumulation of profits, compounding of those profits and loss prevention.

Given an assessment of rate of return objectives over a period of time and risk tolerance, prevalent investment experience and wisdom dictates a recommended allocation of a balanced and diversified portfolio. Typically, the model portfolio consists of an investor-specific percentage-mix of stocks, bonds and an addition of a mutual fund or two.

Investment success through common practice, analysis and history is said to support this balanced approach. It features admirable returns in line with personal risk tolerance and little risk of major loss.

So far so good, right?

 

June 20, 2011


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